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A new study commissioned by the German Research Foundation (DFG) disputes the widely held opinion that scientific “brain drain” from Germany is a significant problem.
The study, based on an exhaustive, wide-ranging report charting career paths and opinions of previous recipients of DFG fellowships, indicates that 85% of scientists who leave Germany for work or research abroad eventually return to jobs in Germany.
Alexis-Michel Mugabushaka, who coauthored the study while an associate researcher at the University of Kassel, told The Scientist that the 85% repatriation figure is lower than previous studies or widespread anecdotal evidence.
Mugabushaka, who last month joined the DFG's Department of Information Management as an evaluation and statistics officer, said statisticians in some “brain drain” studies have mistakenly focused on scientists already abroad.
In November last year, the European Commission warned that the European Union was losing too many scientists, particularly to the United States. To back up that claim, the commission mentioned a study that concluded 75% of EU citizens who obtained doctorates in the United States from 1991 to 2000 “had no specific plans to return to the EU.”
“I think the data in our study are the most reliable of any study I have ever seen. I think our study represents the pattern of German scientists as a whole,” Mugabushaka said.
Mugabushaka and coauthor Juergen Enders, of the University of Twente in the Netherlands, focused only on scientists who had received DFG postdoctoral research fellowships—a major source of postdoctoral funding for top young German scientists.
The statisticians compiled a list of 4397 DFG fellowship recipients from 1986–1987, 1991–1992, and 1996–1997, cutting that to 2500 names by random sampling. Questionnaire forms were sent out in October–December 2002, with 1422 completed questionnaires returned from recipients in four broad science areas: social sciences (including arts and humanities), biology and medicine, natural sciences, and engineering.
Some 72% of those who returned questionnaires worked abroad during at least part of the fellowship, in most cases a 2-year program. Of those who worked abroad, the United States was the first destination for 66.3%. The United Kingdom came in second at 6.5%, followed by Canada at 4.8%, France at 4.6%, Switzerland 2.8%, Italy 1.5%, Australia 1.4%, the Netherlands 1.4%, and Sweden, 1.3%.
Of the 15% still living abroad at the time of the study, 39.4% resided in the United States, 18.3% in Switzerland, 9.7% in the United Kingdom, 7.4% in France, 5.7% in the Netherlands, and 5.1% in Canada. Among natural scientists who had worked abroad, 19% had not returned to Germany, while 17% of biological/medical scientists stayed abroad.
Beate Scholz, program director for research careers at the German Research Foundation, told The Scientist that the study confirmed her suspicions that the extent of German “brain drain” has been exaggerated. Last December, she and a spokeswoman for Germany's Federal Ministry of Education and Research told The Scientist they were skeptical of the “brain drain” warnings by EU officials.
Scholz said of the new study: “From my point of view, it corrects this attitude that we have a huge outflow of researchers who go abroad and don't come back.” She noted that the study indicates around 40% of German scientists who have stayed abroad are working in Western Europe, which in her mind is one research area and basically an extension of Germany.
Scholz said that German science benefits from sending researchers abroad and that she can accept a 15% loss rate, especially since a large portion of those remain in Western Europe.
However, she conceded that 15% could be a problem if it included a large number of Germany's top scientists. Therefore, she said, Germany has to remain vigilant and strive to create an appealing environment for young scientists, including providing sufficient money for research, research independence, and attractive conditions at universities.
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