A “troubling decline” in the number of US citizens training to become scientists and engineers is creating an “emerging and critical problem” for the United States, according to a new report by the by the National Science Board, the independent government panel that oversees and sets policy for the National Science Foundation (NSF).

If current trends continue, the number of US citizens capable of filling a growing number of challenging science and engineering (S&E) jobs will be only level, at best, says the report, An Emerging and Critical Problem of the Science and Engineering Labor Force. “These trends threaten the economic welfare and security of our country,” the NSB writes.

The United States is in “a long-distance race to retain its essential global advantage” in S&E, NSB chairman Warren M. Washington said earlier this week at a news conference. “For many years, we have benefited from minimal competition in the global S&E labor market, but attractive and competitive alternatives are now expanding around the world. We must develop more fully our native talent.”

The NSB report, along with NSF's biennial Science and Engineering (S&E) Indicators 2004, found that the number of US jobs requiring S&E skills is growing at nearly 5% annually, compared with a 1% growth rate for the rest of the US labor market. But several forces are undermining the nation's ability to meet the demand for qualified scientists and engineers:

Many of those currently working in S&E will retire in the next 20 years, while a smaller number of students are choosing S&E careers to take their place. The United States has fallen from third place in 1975 to 17th place compared to other countries in the proportion of 18 to 24 year-olds earning S&E degrees.

Over the past several decades, record numbers of foreign-born S&E professionals have filled this gap. Between 1990 and 2000, the proportion of foreign-born people with doctorates employed in US S&E occupations rose from 24 to 28%. And in 2001, more than half the US engineering and computer science graduates were foreign-born students. But restrictions on visas issued to students, exchange visitors, and scientists following the September 11 terror attacks have sharply curtailed this inflow. “This shortcut to a trained workforce is not likely to continue,” the NSB report states.

Increasing opportunities for science jobs in other countries are luring qualified scientists away from the United States. Between 1993 and 1997, developed countries other than the United States increased their number of S&E research jobs by 23%, compared with an 11% increase in the United States.

US-based authors continue to produce the largest share of scientific journal articles, S&E Indicators 2004 data show. But the number has been flat since 1992, while output from Western Europe and several Asian countries has increased. NSF is studying the matter.

“Even if action is taken today to change these trends, the reversal is 10 to 20 years away” because middle-school students who are deciding now to pursue careers in science won't complete advanced training until 2018 or 2020, the NSB report states.

Without offering specifics, the NSB urges improvement in education at all levels to make science careers attractive to today's students. “If action is not taken now to change these trends, we could reach 2020 and find that the ability of the US research and education institutions to regenerate has been damaged and that their preeminence has been lost to other areas of the world,” the NSB report concludes.

Representatives of professional research societies yesterday (May 5) said they were still reviewing the reports.